What are the risks and consequences of asylum application being denied?

I am currently on TPS. Before this, I had an F1 visa. I have maintained valid nonimmigrant status since 2010. Now that the TPS is coming to an end, I want to apply for a political asylum. I have been prosecuted in the past and more likely than not…

For the best assessment of your situation and possible routes to take, you need to speak to an experienced immigration attorney. There is no way anyone in this forum can provide you carefully tailored legal advice on all possible options you have in your situation.

Having said so, here are some general thoughts on your questions:

If you have a strong claim for asylum, you should not be focusing too much on the denial. As long as you can show that you are unable/unwilling to return to your home country because you have been persecuted there in the past or have a well-founded fear that you will be persecuted if you go back, you will most likely get an asylum. It goes without saying that you need to hire an attorney to significantly increase your chances of getting an asylum.

Your concerns related to returning to your home country after your asylum application was denied are certainly justified. By applying for asylum, you demonstrated an immigrant intent. Given F1 requires showing non-immigrant intent, it will be very difficult to get it. I would not say «never,» but it will be extremely difficult to convince the consular officer that you have a non-immigrant intent. Further, because you returned to your home country from which you claimed fear of persecution, consular officer may suspect fraudulent asylum application.